Category Archives: Predictions

2018 Oscar Predictions: The Shorts

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All of the shorts lack precursors that could point us in much of a direction. These categories mostly come down to word of mouth, the subject matter and if there might be a studio or famous figure behind one. In addition, professional award writers, who have access to these shorts, are good sources to look to.

For documentary short, Netflix is behind Heroin(e), so with them pushing the film and the subject matter the opioid crisis, it has enough to get it there. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, a film with a hell of a title, could get there, as could Edith+Eddie. For animated short, retired NBA star Kobe Bryant is at the center of Dear Basketball and with plenty of the voting body located in Los Angeles, home of the Lakers, that could push it past Pixar’s Lou — although Pixar can win this category even when they have a film that’s just about a cute bird and not much more, so don’t discount their entry or Garden Party, which is rather popular. In live action, the subject matter is what hints toward a winner, as DeKalb Elementary is about a school shooter and the current public focus on the Douglas High School shooting gives the short film plenty of power. If anything can take the category instead, it might be The Silent Child.

Documentary Short

The Nominees
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

Will win: Heroin(e)
Could win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Animated Short

The Nominees
Dear Basketball
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
 Garden Party

Will win: Dear Basketball
Could win: Lou

Live Action Short

The Nominees
The Eleven O’Clock
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
My Nephew Emmett
DeKalb Elementary

Will win: DeKalb Elementary
Could win: The Silent Child

 

Featured image via Premium Films.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

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Best Original Song doesn’t always go to the best song. Oftentimes, it’s a popularity contest, like last year’s “City of Stars” win, and this year is no different.

The song that should be winning, Sufjan Stevens’ “Visions of Gideon,” from Call Me by Your Name, wasn’t even nominated. Out of the nominees, Stevens still has the best song with “Mystery of Love,” an endlessly moving ballad. While it won at the Guild of Music Supervisors Awards, it has next to no momentum heading into Oscar night.

Mudbound‘s Mary J. Blige double dipped at this Oscars, receiving nominations in Best Supporting Actress and in Best Original Song for “Mighty River.” That acting nomination could push plenty of voters to opt for her in Original Song.

Perhaps the second best song, Coco‘s “Remember Me,” a culturally infused, heartbreaking song that’s integral to the plot of the film, is a definite contender, as it comes from a Pixar film and plays during a point of the film that makes nearly everyone cry.

The La La Land songwriting team, massive marketing in itself, worked on The Greatest Showman, and the number “This Is Me” has certainly been the talking point of the season as it champions diversity and is almost frustratingly catchy. The song won at the Golden Globes, and was a theme at the Winter Olympics. It’s not a lock, but it’s the most obvious choice to make and, as “City of Stars” showed last year, that could easily be the right choice.

The Nominees
“Mystery of Love,” Sufjan Stevens — Call Me by Your Name
“This Is Me,” Benj Hasek, Justin Paul — The Greatest Showman
“Remember Me,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez — Coco
“Stand Up For Something,” Diane Warren, Common — Marshall
 “Mighty River,” Mary J. Blige — Mudbound

Will win: “This Is Me,” Benj Hasek, Justin Paul — The Greatest Showman
Could win: “Remember Me,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez — Coco
Should win: “Mystery of Love,” Sufjan Stevens — Call Me by Your Name
Should’ve been nominated: “Visions of Gideon,” Sufjan Stevens — Call Me by Your Name

 

Featured image via Twentieth Century Fox.

Independent Spirit Award nominations: Analysis and predictions

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While it may still be a long time before we get the 2018 Oscar nominations — with all of the guild and critics prizes yet to come — the cinematic gods blessed us with arguably an even more interesting set of films: the Independent Spirit Awards.

Unlike the Oscars, which always tend to be predicated on what studio spends the most for its films to garner nominations and eventual wins — assuming the quality of the film is mostly there too — the Independent Spirit Awards almost always go for an eclectic crop of nominees. For example, the highly acclaimed, but rarely seen The Rider receiving nominations for Best Feature over a film like Mudbound and for Best Director over Greta Gerwig with Lady Bird.

While submissions and snubs are abound in any awards show, the Indie Spirit Awards do their job in providing a wealth of options that have both broke out in the mainstream (Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards), masterpieces waiting to be released after a hugely successful festival run (Call Me by Your Name, I, Tonya) and underseen but deserving gems (The Lovers, Columbus, Beach Rats).

Below you will find an analysis of the main categories, with way-too-early predictions in each category for what may win come March 3rd, 2018.

 

Best Feature:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Rider

Analysis: Anyone of these films are quality enough to win, all being festival favorites throughout the year. And four of them (Call Me by Your Name, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird) are legitimate contenders for Best Picture nominations.

With that being said, once seeing how the whole field looks, it appears that there are truly only two threats for the win here: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. The Rider was stronger than anyone expected, picking up Best Feature, Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Editing nominations. Lady Bird was great across the board, but missed out on a Best Directing nom, showing a potential weakness for the win. The Florida Project received a Best Feature and Best Director nom, but missed out on Best Supporting Actor for Oscar front-running Willem Dafoe, as well as Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. All of these missed noms show an overall weakness that The Florida Project has (or just how highly competitive indies were this year).

Nonetheless, if Get Out and Call Me by Your Name are the frontrunners and thus the titans of the field, then there honestly aren’t two better options. Get Out is one of the highest grossing indies of all time, as well as, still, one of the best reviewed of the year. It’s a film from first-time director Jordan Peele that goes straight for the jugular of white liberalism and the hidden racialized beliefs that persist within society. The film is a savage satire on the institutions and ideas that stigmatize and oppress minorities. Balancing horror, comedy, mystery, thriller, drama and practically everything in between, Get Out remains the event film of the year when it comes to creating relevant and necessary discussion about America’s past and present race relations.

Call Me by Your Name may be more modest in its aims. However, there may not have been a more sensual screen realization of the aching, painful first love a young person goes through. Where most films about a homosexual relationship feature societal pressure and punishment for their non-conforming relationship, such as the tribulations the characters face in Moonlight or Brokeback Mountain, Call Me by Your Name instead allows the pain to come from two lovers that know their time together is running out. With excellent performances from Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name makes you feel the ching lust, the heavy desire, the impending heartbreak that these two young men face. Directed by Italian maestro Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name is a queer masterpiece, but a universal one too.  

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: Get Out
Should win: Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Director:

Universal Pictures/Courtesy

Jonas Carpignano, A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Benny and Josh Safdie, Good Time
Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Analysis: Every nominee here is absolutely deserving, yet, it was interesting to see the field expanded to six nominees, and one of them wasn’t Greta Gerwig’s 400 Blows-esque debut with Lady Bird. Nonetheless, if Benny and Josh Safdie got in over her, for their subtle exploration of white privilege in America within their very-not-subtle bad decisions heist thriller, then so be it. Their urban, gritty descent into madness with a stunning, Indie Spirit-nominated Robert Pattinson might actually be a threat to win here due to Good Time being so strong in every other category — landing a Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing and a worthy yet fully unexpected Supporting Actress nomination.

But who am I kidding? Like above, there are really three, but more likely two nominees that can win. Sean Baker has a chance, due to The Florida Project moving nearly everyone who sees it, but this will be a Guadagnino versus Peele showdown. And both are incredibly deserving. While it appears that the beauty of Call Me by Your Name would be a likely Best Feature winner, the intensity and relevancy of Get Out will make it hard to be ignored for the Best Director award.

Will win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Could win: Sean Baker, The Florida Project or Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

Best Female Lead:

Fox Searchlight/Courtesy

Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Shinobu Terajima, Oh Lucy
Regina Williams, Life and Nothing More

Analysis: This category is a prime example of what makes the Independent Spirit Awards so special. We have three women who are potential Oscar nominees (and maybe even winners), and three women who likely will be ignored by most critics and guild prizes, despite being entirely worthy. Regina Williams, Shinobu Terajima and Salma Hayek all give arguably their career best in films that were all greatly reviewed, and, in the case of Beatriz at Dinner and Life and Nothing More, showed strength in multiple categories.

But truly, this is a Robbie or Ronan or McDormand win, who showcase some of the best lead performances of the year, regardless of gender. Robbie continues to dazzle audiences by going against type, as funny, but twisted real-life figure skater Tonya Harding in the pitch black comedy biopic I, Tonya. Frances McDormand brings a bruised humanity to Three Billboards, upstaging great performances from Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson and John Hawkes. The film is an angry examination of the lack of urgency of police in certain situations, as well as a pitch-perfect character study of the women and police involved in an unsolved murder and rape case. McDormand gives one of her all-time best, which by her standards, says a lot about the masterful Martin McDonagh film.

Then, there is Saoirse Ronan, giving her career best in Lady Bird — a film in which she deftly balances being both an intelligent teenager with large ambitions, as well as a naive young woman figuring out life as she goes. Featuring moments comical and entirely moving, especially when in scenes with her screen mother Laurie Metcalf, Ronan is a real threat to be the major winner for Lady Bird.

Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Should win: Honestly, all of them are excellent.

 

Best Male Lead:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Analysis: It’s hard to call a race over when each nominee is incredible, but this one, for all intents and purposes, is likely over.

James Franco gives his best performance yet, in the moving, hilarious and ultimately tragic The Disaster Artist, a film about the making of the worst film of all time, The Room. Then there’s Robert Pattinson’s masterfully manipulative Connie in Good Time — another career best and potential dark horse Oscar candidate. Daniel Kaluuya carries what is shaping up to be one of the awards season heavy hitters, deftly playing a victim and a person unwilling to be subjected to the horrors that white culture thrust upon him.

Ultimately though, Timothée Chalamet will walk away with the award. Whether you love or just like Call Me by Your Name, there’s no doubting the raw lead performance from the 21-year-old Chalamet. There’re a few scenes in this film where Timothée sells the lies that his character tells to loved ones, but also the hidden truths that are found in body language. One of the last scenes in the film, which is nothing shorter than at least a five-minute close up, on nothing else but Timothée’s face, will surely be a scene that people will be haunted by as they leave this masterful, beautiful, exhilarating film about the passion and pain of first love.

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Could win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Supporting Female:

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time

Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Could win: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick or Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird or Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

 

Best Supporting Male:

Nnamdi Asomugha, Crown Heights
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Benny Safdie, Good Time

Will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Any of the five are incredible.

 

Best Screenplay:

Lady Bird
The Lovers
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Beatriz at Dinner

Will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Get Out or Lady Bird
Should win: Lady Bird

 

Best First Screenplay:

Donald Cried
The Big Sick
Women Who Kill
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West

Will win: The Big Sick
Could win: Ingrid Goes West
Should win: The Big Sick

 

Best Cinematography:

The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Columbus
Beach Rats
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Should win: Columbus

 

Best Editing:

Good Time
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider
Get Out
I, Tonya

Will win: Get Out
Could win: Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Good Time or I, Tonya

 

John Cassavetes Award:

A Ghost Story
Dayveon
Life and Nothing More
Most Beautiful Island
The Transfiguration

Will win: A Ghost Story
Could win: Dayveon or Life and Nothing More
Should win: A Ghost Story

 

Best Documentary:

The Departure
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Motherland
Quest

Will win: Faces Places
Could win: Last Men in Aleppo
Should win: Faces Places

 

Best International Film:

A Fantastic Woman
BPM
Lady Macbeth
I Am Not a Witch
Loveless

Will win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: Loveless
Should win: A Fantastic Woman

 

Featured image via Universal/Sony Pictures Classics/A24.

2018 Oscar Predictions

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The Oscars are finally here. The competition truly started over a year ago in January 2017, when Call Me by Your Name, Get Out and Mudbound premiered at the Sundance Film Festival. So to say that it’s been a long road to this day is an understatement (especially because the Academy felt like dragging it on even longer than usual by pushing back the broadcast into March).

One of the most exciting periods, though, is that roughly month and a half between Oscar nominations and the Oscar broadcast, as other areas of the awards season play out and hint — sometimes aggressively, sometimes incredibly ambiguously — at how Oscar night might go.

Tracking the awards season and predicting the Academy Awards is almost a science. But last year, when Moonlight stunned with a Best Picture win, that science proved more vulnerable than we had thought.

This year, it’s all up in the air. While precursors might suggest something, nothing is truly set in stone until a name or a film is called (and even then, we have to double check).

This year, predicting the nominations is a bit more complicated. We have to be smart and still know when there’s an obvious winner, but we also have to think far outside the box for categories that are even remotely fragile — especially Best Picture.

So, without further ado, here are our Oscar predictions for the 90th Academy Awards:

Best Motion Picture

Best Lead Actor

Best Lead Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Director

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Animated Feature

Best Production Design

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Editing

Best Visual Effects

Best Original Score

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Documentary Feature

Best Original Song

The Shorts

 

Featured image via Universal Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

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This has been the most difficult to predict Best Picture race in recent memory. On Oscar day, as many as five films could have a legitimate shot at winning. Those are: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, Dunkirk and Lady Bird.

To be upfront about it, I’m predicting Get Out. I came to my prediction two months ago for very specific reasons, and while nothing has made me completely confident in it, nothing has derailed my reasoning.

The obvious choice would The Shape of Water. It has 13 nominations. It’s going to win multiple awards. It’s going to win Best Director. It won the PGA award. That seems like it would be enough to overcome the lack of a SAG ensemble nomination.

But that’s what we said about La La Land last year, and The Shape of Water certainly has far less hype going into Oscar day than La La Land did.

The next obvious choice would be Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. It not only received a SAG ensemble nomination, but it won. It won the BAFTA award for Best Picture. It received PGA and DGA nominations. That seems like it would be enough to overcome the lack of a Best Director nomination.

But, when Ben Affleck was passed over for a Best Director nomination, he still won the DGA award and Argo still won the PGA award. And as we know from Hidden Figures, American Hustle and The Help, a SAG ensemble win doesn’t mean a Best Picture win. Three Billboards also falls into a La La Land-esque situation in regard to backlash; there has been plenty of press intensely critiquing the film’s racial politics.

At first, Lady Bird seemed like the preferential ballot friendly film that could sneak its way to a win. But it needed something throughout the awards season, and it didn’t really get anything.

That’s what brings me to Get Out. The last two Best Picture winners have been at least partially unexpected. Most people were predicting The Revenant two years ago — and if not The Revenant, many were predicting The Big Short due to its PGA win — and most people were predicting La La Land last year. So I looked at where Spotlight and Moonlight succeeded, at places that may have hinted at their potential win. At first, it seems like Spotlight‘s indicator might have been the SAG ensemble win. But like I said before, Hidden Figures, American Hustle and The Help all won that award without winning Best Picture. After further deduction, it came down, in my opinion, to the Best Original Screenplay WGA award (in addition to having some of the big prerequisites). Both Spotlight and Moonlight won that award, and then moved on to win their screenplay awards at the Oscars (Moonlight was nominated in the Best Adapted Screenplay category at the Oscars). Get Out‘s WGA win could be bigger than most people think it is.

Why I say “could” is because Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri was ineligible for the award. Had it been eligible and Get Out still won, things might be more clear. It wasn’t, though, so this angle is not entirely bullet proof.

But because I’m predicting Get Out in Best Original Screenplay, I believe that the film will also win Best Picture. In only five of the last 20 years has a film won Best Picture without winning a screenplay award and in each of those five years, the film that won Best Picture still had a Best Director nomination, with those directors winning three out of the five times. That suggests to me that if Martin McDonagh loses Best Original Screenplay, there is no chance that Three Billboards wins Best Picture without that Best Director nomination and without any of the guild wins that Argo had.

Some of the troubles Get Out runs into is its lack of below-the-line nominations, specifically a film editing nomination. Not since 1980 has a film won Best Picture without any below-the-line nominations. Get Out also only has four Oscar nominations, and a film hasn’t won Best Picture with that few in 84 years.

The reason why details like that don’t scare me this year is because each of the top five contenders will break or impact a stat/detail like that. Dunkirk doesn’t have any acting nominations or a screenplay nomination, and it’s been 85 years since a film won Best Picture in the same scenario. The Shape of Water, as said before, lacks a SAG ensemble nomination, and it’s been 22 years since a film won Best Picture in the same scenario. Lady Bird has five nominations, but it also lacks below-the-line nominations, and, as said before, it’s been 37 years since a film won Best Picture in the same scenario. As stated already, Three Billboards lacks a Best Director nomination, and before the Argo situation five years ago, a film hadn’t won Best Picture in the same scenario since 1989.

One of these stats is going to break or be impacted significantly. It’s just a matter of which one it’ll be. And because it is guaranteed that one will be broken/impacted, we also have to look at factors outside of stats, at the cultural feeling and the cultural moment. Black Panther released in February and the hype surrounding it occurred at the same time that Oscar voting did. The film features Daniel Kaluuya and engages in racism like Get Out does. And as Black Panther becomes its own cultural phenomenon, Get Out, a year after its release has solidified itself as a cultural landmark.

The helpful thing is, however, that Get Out, in fact, does have support from below-the-line branches.

Get Out received an American Cinema Editors nomination, a guild equivalent of the Best Film Editing category. So while it may not have received an Oscar nomination, there is support there. It also received nominations from the Art Directors Guild and the Costume Designers Guild (the contemporary category of each often doesn’t translate to Oscar nominations, but they are still evidence of support), and it won the Publicists Guild award (Public Relations is a branch of the Academy). There is support across the board. And with an acting nomination, a Best Director nomination, a SAG ensemble nomination and not only a screenplay nomination, but a potential screenplay win, Get Out is looking pretty good.

What’ll throw this angle off drastically is if Three Billboards wins Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars, which is definitely possible. But if Get Out wins, look out for the final award of the night.

The Nominees
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Post
Call Me by Your Name
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour

Will win: Get Out
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Get Out
Should’ve been nominated: Mudbound

 

Featured image via Universal Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor

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It seemed as though Gary Oldman was going to win Best Lead Actor for his role as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour all the way back when the first photo of him in full makeup released. And as the film released at festivals, nearly every critic suggested that it was his time.

Then, Timothée Chalamet and Call Me by Your Name came. Chalamet picked up nearly every single critic group award. But as the industry awards started coming, the momentum shifted back to Oldman, with him winning the BAFTA award and the SAG award. And with him also winning the Critics’ Choice award and the Golden Globe, it’s difficult to choose anyone other than him.

Chalamet did win a Best Lead Actor award as recent as last night at the Indie Spirit awards. And it’s terribly sad that that might be where it stops for him. His performance is clearly the best of the bunch.

Oldman might’ve had a more serious contender had Christian Bale been nominated for Hostiles, as age bias couldn’t play a role there. Had Hostiles been acquired by a better distributor sooner, Bale would’ve put up a fight.

The Nominees
Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis — Phantom Thread
Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Kaluuya — Get Out
 Denzel Washington — Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Will win: Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Could win: Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
Should’ve been nominated: Christian Bale — Hostiles

 

Featured image via Focus Features.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

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Sigh. These acting categories have become so boring. Best Lead Actress, in particular, could’ve been really, really interesting. As the awards season started, it seemed as though any of these five outstanding performances could’ve picked up awards. But then, Frances McDormand swept the precursors. It’s disappointing, as her performance is the most explicit and, thus, least fruitful. Out of all of the races, it’s difficult to be as frustrated here because McDormand is such an awesome figure. But again, things could’ve been more interesting.

The beloved Sally Hawkins might have an outside shot to spoil, as might Saoirse Ronan and even Margot Robbie (see? the fact that all of these feel as though they have outside shots shows how strong this category is). However, the right bet is the safe one.

The Nominees
Frances McDormand — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan — Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins — The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep — The Post
Margot Robbie — I, Tonya

Will win: Frances McDormand — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Sally Hawkins — The Shape of Water
Should win: Margot Robbie — I, Tonya
Should’ve been nominated: Jessica Chastain — Molly’s Game

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

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Like Best Supporting Actress, the Best Supporting Actor category has, in industry awards, differed from the critics. Willem Dafoe was an overwhelming critic favorite. But Sam Rockwell has swept the precursors like Allison Janney has, winning the Golden Globe, the Indie Spirit award, the Critics’ Choice award, the BAFTA award and the SAG award.

Plenty of people in the industry adore Willem Dafoe, but he needed some kind of bump to hang on here.

The Nominees
Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins — The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer — All the Money in the World
 Woody Harrelson — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Should win: Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Should’ve been nominated: Jason Mitchell — Mudbound

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

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What a disappointing result in this category. It may not be official, but it might as well be. I, Tonya‘s Allison Janney won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice award, the Indie Spirit award, the SAG award and the BAFTA award.

While there’s still hope that Laurie Metcalf might garner just enough love from the entire Academy — never say never — one would think that Metcalf would take at least one or two of those. And though Metcalf may be beloved, so is Janney, and Janney has apparently been schmoozing at parties and such during the awards season — a key part of campaigning.

The Nominees
Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Allison Janney — I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
Lesley Manville — Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer — The Shape of Water

Will win: Allison Janney — I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Should win: Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Should’ve been nominated: Tatiana Maslany — Stronger

 

Featured image via Neon.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

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Christopher Nolan finally got his long awaited first Oscar nomination for Best Director, almost a decade overdue after being snubbed for 2008’s The Dark Knight. In fact, Nolan should be on his third nomination, as he was also snubbed for Inception.

And while he deserves to win (and in this writer’s opinion, it shouldn’t even be close), he won’t. He’s the one that could put up the biggest fight, but there’s a clear favorite.

Guillermo del Toro has won both the BAFTA award and the Directors Guild of America award, the two massive indicators that all but tie a bow on this race.

The Nominees
Christopher Nolan — Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro — The Shape of Water
Paul Thomas Anderson — Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele — Get Out
Greta Gerwig — Lady Bird

Will win: Guillermo del Toro — The Shape of Water
Could win: Christopher Nolan — Dunkirk
Should win: Christopher Nolan — Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: Luca Guadagnino — Call Me by Your Name

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

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