Category Archives: Predictions

Independent Spirit Award nominations: Analysis and predictions

While it may still be a long time before we get the 2018 Oscar nominations — with all of the guild and critics prizes yet to come — the cinematic gods blessed us with arguably an even more interesting set of films: the Independent Spirit Awards.

Unlike the Oscars, which always tend to be predicated on what studio spends the most for its films to garner nominations and eventual wins — assuming the quality of the film is mostly there too — the Independent Spirit Awards almost always go for an eclectic crop of nominees. For example, the highly acclaimed, but rarely seen The Rider receiving nominations for Best Feature over a film like Mudbound and for Best Director over Greta Gerwig with Lady Bird.

While submissions and snubs are abound in any awards show, the Indie Spirit Awards do their job in providing a wealth of options that have both broke out in the mainstream (Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards), masterpieces waiting to be released after a hugely successful festival run (Call Me by Your Name, I, Tonya) and underseen but deserving gems (The Lovers, Columbus, Beach Rats).

Below you will find an analysis of the main categories, with way-too-early predictions in each category for what may win come March 3rd, 2018.

 

Best Feature:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Rider

Analysis: Anyone of these films are quality enough to win, all being festival favorites throughout the year. And four of them (Call Me by Your Name, The Florida Project, Get OutLady Bird) are legitimate contenders for Best Picture nominations.

With that being said, once seeing how the whole field looks, it appears that there are truly only two threats for the win here: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. The Rider was stronger than anyone expected, picking up Best Feature, Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Editing nominations. Lady Bird was great across the board, but missed out on a Best Directing nom, showing a potential weakness for the win. The Florida Project received a Best Feature and Best Director nom, but missed out on Best Supporting Actor for Oscar front-running Willem Dafoe, as well as Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. All of these missed noms show an overall weakness that The Florida Project has (or just how highly competitive indies were this year).

Nonetheless, if Get Out and Call Me by Your Name are the frontrunners and thus the titans of the field, then there honestly aren’t two better options. Get Out is one of the highest grossing indies of all time, as well as, still, one of the best reviewed of the year. It’s a film from first-time director Jordan Peele that goes straight for the jugular of white liberalism and the hidden racialized beliefs that persist within society. The film is a savage satire on the institutions and ideas that stigmatize and oppress minorities. Balancing horror, comedy, mystery, thriller, drama and practically everything in between, Get Out remains the event film of the year when it comes to creating relevant and necessary discussion about America’s past and present race relations.

Call Me by Your Name may be more modest in its aims. However, there may not have been a more sensual screen realization of the aching, painful first love a young person goes through. Where most films about a homosexual relationship feature societal pressure and punishment for their non-conforming relationship, such as the tribulations the characters face in Moonlight or Brokeback Mountain, Call Me by Your Name instead allows the pain to come from two lovers that know their time together is running out. With excellent performances from Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name makes you feel the ching lust, the heavy desire, the impending heartbreak that these two young men face. Directed by Italian maestro Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name is a queer masterpiece, but a universal one too.  

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: Get Out
Should win: Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Director:

Universal Pictures/Courtesy

Jonas Carpignano, A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Benny and Josh Safdie, Good Time
Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Analysis: Every nominee here is absolutely deserving, yet, it was interesting to see the field expanded to six nominees, and one of them wasn’t Greta Gerwig’s 400 Blows-esque debut with Lady Bird. Nonetheless, if Benny and Josh Safdie got in over her, for their subtle exploration of white privilege in America within their very-not-subtle bad decisions heist thriller, then so be it. Their urban, gritty descent into madness with a stunning, Indie Spirit-nominated Robert Pattinson might actually be a threat to win here due to Good Time being so strong in every other category — landing a Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing and a worthy yet fully unexpected Supporting Actress nomination.

But who am I kidding? Like above, there are really three, but more likely two nominees that can win. Sean Baker has a chance, due to The Florida Project moving nearly everyone who sees it, but this will be a Guadagnino versus Peele showdown. And both are incredibly deserving. While it appears that the beauty of Call Me by Your Name would be a likely Best Feature winner, the intensity and relevancy of Get Out will make it hard to be ignored for the Best Director award.

Will win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Could win: Sean Baker, The Florida Project or Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

Best Female Lead:

Fox Searchlight/Courtesy

Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Shinobu Terajima, Oh Lucy
Regina Williams, Life and Nothing More

Analysis: This category is a prime example of what makes the Independent Spirit Awards so special. We have three women who are potential Oscar nominees (and maybe even winners), and three women who likely will be ignored by most critics and guild prizes, despite being entirely worthy. Regina Williams, Shinobu Terajima and Salma Hayek all give arguably their career best in films that were all greatly reviewed, and, in the case of Beatriz at Dinner and Life and Nothing More, showed strength in multiple categories.

But truly, this is a Robbie or Ronan or McDormand win, who showcase some of the best lead performances of the year, regardless of gender. Robbie continues to dazzle audiences by going against type, as funny, but twisted real-life figure skater Tonya Harding in the pitch black comedy biopic I, Tonya. Frances McDormand brings a bruised humanity to Three Billboards, upstaging great performances from Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson and John Hawkes. The film is an angry examination of the lack of urgency of police in certain situations, as well as a pitch-perfect character study of the women and police involved in an unsolved murder and rape case. McDormand gives one of her all-time best, which by her standards, says a lot about the masterful Martin McDonagh film.

Then, there is Saoirse Ronan, giving her career best in Lady Bird — a film in which she deftly balances being both an intelligent teenager with large ambitions, as well as a naive young woman figuring out life as she goes. Featuring moments comical and entirely moving, especially when in scenes with her screen mother Laurie Metcalf, Ronan is a real threat to be the major winner for Lady Bird.

Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Should win: Honestly, all of them are excellent.

 

Best Male Lead:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Analysis: It’s hard to call a race over when each nominee is incredible, but this one, for all intents and purposes, is likely over.

James Franco gives his best performance yet, in the moving, hilarious and ultimately tragic The Disaster Artist, a film about the making of the worst film of all time, The Room. Then there’s Robert Pattinson’s masterfully manipulative Connie in Good Time — another career best and potential dark horse Oscar candidate. Daniel Kaluuya carries what is shaping up to be one of the awards season heavy hitters, deftly playing a victim and a person unwilling to be subjected to the horrors that white culture thrust upon him.

Ultimately though, Timothée Chalamet will walk away with the award. Whether you love or just like Call Me by Your Name, there’s no doubting the raw lead performance from the 21-year-old Chalamet. There’re a few scenes in this film where Timothée sells the lies that his character tells to loved ones, but also the hidden truths that are found in body language. One of the last scenes in the film, which is nothing shorter than at least a five-minute close up, on nothing else but Timothée’s face, will surely be a scene that people will be haunted by as they leave this masterful, beautiful, exhilarating film about the passion and pain of first love.

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Could win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Supporting Female:

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time

Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Could win: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick or Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird or Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

 

Best Supporting Male:

Nnamdi Asomugha, Crown Heights
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Benny Safdie, Good Time

Will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Any of the five are incredible.

 

Best Screenplay:

Lady Bird
The Lovers
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Beatriz at Dinner

Will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Get Out or Lady Bird
Should win: Lady Bird

 

Best First Screenplay:

Donald Cried
The Big Sick
Women Who Kill
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West

Will win: The Big Sick
Could win: Ingrid Goes West
Should win: The Big Sick

 

Best Cinematography:

The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Columbus
Beach Rats
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Should win: Columbus

 

Best Editing:

Good Time
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider
Get Out
I, Tonya

Will win: Get Out
Could win: Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Good Time or I, Tonya

 

John Cassavetes Award:

A Ghost Story
Dayveon
Life and Nothing More
Most Beautiful Island
The Transfiguration

Will win: A Ghost Story
Could win: Dayveon or Life and Nothing More
Should win: A Ghost Story

 

Best Documentary:

The Departure
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Motherland
Quest

Will win: Faces Places
Could win: Last Men in Aleppo
Should win: Faces Places

 

Best International Film:

A Fantastic Woman
BPM
Lady Macbeth
I Am Not a Witch
Loveless

Will win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: Loveless
Should win: A Fantastic Woman

 

Featured image via Universal/Sony Pictures Classics/A24.

2018 Oscar Predictions

Oscar contention truly starts at the beginning of the year. Sundance Film Festival is host to plenty of independents, and there’s always one or two that get people talking. And oftentimes, those films carry. Look at Whiplash or Manchester by the SeaCall Me by Your Name and Mudbound could do the same.

Spring quickly dries up, unless someone with the quality of Wes Anderson is releasing a film, and the public got a big contender right away with February’s Get Out.

The wait after that is not as long as one may think. May plays host to Cannes, and there always seems to be a few serious Best Picture contenders to come out of the French festival — The Florida Project seeming to be the one this year.

Then, if we’re lucky, someone like George Miller, with Mad Max: Fury Road, or, this year, Christopher Nolan, with Dunkirk, will start another public wide Oscars conversation with a summer release.

That film garners intense conversation — as Dunkirk did — long enough to last until the end of August when the remaining major festivals play out. Across about three weeks, Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival and Toronto International Film festival all occur. There, the true contenders reveal themselves. Last year, Moonlight and La La Land screened with days of each other. This year, we got The Shape of WaterThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird.

Then, it’s suddenly the Fall season and we’re off to the races with those very films releasing to the public across the next four months. And, if we’re lucky, a film will sneak in last minute to round out the year, as Steven Spielberg’s The Post did.

For movie fans, the Oscars are truly a year long journey, and whether or not a film will compete for one has turned into a metric by which to judge quality — for better or for worse.

But we’re having particular fun with it this year, one of the more interesting years of recent memory. We’ve followed the journey since the start and we feel comfortable enough calling ourselves familiar with the field.

And now that the year is wrapping up and the races are getting steamy, we want to jump in with how we project those coveted Oscar nominations will turn out. Predicting the Oscars has turned into a competitive sport, and it’s one that we must play. Here are our predictions for the 90th Academy Awards:

Best Motion Picture

Best Lead Actor

Best Lead Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Director

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Animated Feature

Best Production Design

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Editing

Best Visual Effects

Best Original Score

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Documentary Feature

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

While the Best Picture field has shaped up as time passed, there is still no frontrunner. Many of the films nominated will have a great chance of winning.

Right now, there are seven strong bets.

With SAG nominations for Best Ensemble, Lady BirdGet Out and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri are essentially shoe-ins. A film rarely wins Best Picture without one of these and, considering the momentum of these three, it would be shocking were one not to be nominated.

Despite not receiving a SAG Best Ensemble nom, Christopher Nolan’s war epic Dunkirk is still a legitimate threat. The film exploded out of the gates with the best reviews of his career and many touting it as the first legitimate Oscar contender of the year. The film is an unparalleled experiential feat, the cinematic experience of the year, and should work its way into a Best Picture nomination quite easily, a la Gravity and Mad Max: Fury Road. The war genre also makes it Nolan’s friendliest Oscar picture to date, while still remaining distinctly “Nolan,” and Warner Bros. knows that it has something special in its hands.

There was word that The Post came to SAG voters too late for it to be considered, so it not being in there doesn’t necessarily hold the same weight as other films. The Post will likely be loved by the industry, especially because it’s a Steven Spielberg film and it’s extremely relevant. It’s certainly going to be nominated.

The next rather clear cut nomination is Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. The film is a contender across the board, including being a heavy weight in Best Director, which, most of the time, correlates with Best Picture. Plus, the film is also one loved by so many, and easier to love than some others.

Call Me by Your Name may have taken a hit with its total omission from SAG nominations, but, even then, it’s still too strong to ignore. It is the critical darling of the season and, like Manchester by the Sea showed last year, that quite easily translates to a nomination. Even if it did sustain a hit, it was previously near the top, so it wouldn’t really fall far enough to genuinely fall out of contention.

Beyond those seven, as the Academy will likely nominate at least eight, there are a few that could find a final spot.

The Florida Project is a small project, but it seems to be a sneaky powerhouse contender similar to Room, and a Best Picture nomination would absolutely be in order. Like Call Me by Your Name, it is a total critical darling and a film easy to love, two aspects that could translate well. And the fact that it’s an A24 film — A24 being the studio behind Moonlight — only makes it more of a rallying point.

The other outlier is Mudbound. Objectively, the film should be easy to nominate. But it’s distributed by Netflix, and it seems as though the bias against the streaming company isn’t completely gone as it’s momentum has been rather deflated as of late. Still, it is quite a stunning picture, and it has a lot of valuable things to say about race and America that are still extremely relevant today. It also got a SAG Best Ensemble nomination — rightly so — so there’s reason to believe that Netflix could finally break into this category.

While eight seems more likely, we’re going to, at least for now, hedge our bets on there being nine Best Picture nominees, so we don’t have to knock out The Florida Project or Mudbound just yet.

But there are films still in contention.

The Big Sick is the final film mentioned that received a SAG Best Ensemble nod. It’s a certain contender in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, so it’s not unreasonable to suggest that it could be nominated.

Darkest Hour hits a sweet spot for the Academy: period prestige. As time has passed, though, the film’s reception has slowly sunk. Something just hasn’t stuck. But the quality is there and it could still find a place.

This wouldn’t be an Oscar conversation without discussing the blockbuster that could potentially shake things up. And this year, the contender seems easy to spot. Blade Runner 2049 is directed by Denis Villeneuve, the filmmaker behind Arrival, which earned eight nominations including Best Director and Best Picture. 2049 has received outstanding reviews and, with it successfully (at least story-wise) following up a sci-fi classic, it could be a film to get behind.

Lastly, three eccentric films could still be in contention. Phantom Thread, The Disaster Artist and I, Tonya have all been widely acclaimed. They might be too particular and not as easily accessible, but stranger things have happened.

9 nominations
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Shape of Water

The Post
Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Mudbound

Could contend
Darkest Hour
The Big Sick
Blade Runner 2049
The Disaster Artist
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread

 

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor

Right now, Best Lead Actor is the Gary Oldman show. Not only will he be nominated, for only the second time in his career, but he could very well win for his portrayal of Winston Churchill.

Oldman isn’t in danger of not being nominated, but, as the current frontrunner, he is up against some tough competition in Daniel Day-Lewis. By it simply being his last performance ever, as he is retiring from acting, DDL’s turn in Phantom Thread is bound to be nominated. The last time he acted, which was in Lincoln, he won. DDL has also given one of the greatest performances of all time in There Will Be Blood. So, he should not be taken lightly this year.

More so than Day-Lewis, though, Timothée Chalamet has been an absolute revelation this year. He has dominated critics group awards and his performance is quite possibly the best of the year in any category. He is a lock and it would be easy to see him winning.

Our next prediction is a fascinating one. James Franco plays iconic The Room filmmaker/actor Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist, and both the film and Franco’s performance have been definite rallying points for audiences and critics this year. Weirder roles have resulted in nominations and this one seems to be stronger than most of those.

The final spot comes down to quiet a few names.

Jake Gyllenhaal is, once again, showcasing just how ridiculously good he is with his performance in Stronger. A nomination would not be undeserving, but it has a huge obstacle in front of it: the film was seen by so few and is being virtually ignored by critics groups. Gyllenhaal may be a casualty.

Daniel Kaluuya, for Get Out, has held across the season, recently receiving a SAG nomination. His performance is subtle, but impactful and resonant.

Tom Hanks is scene-munching in The Post. He’s certainly not the best he’s ever been, but this role is one of his more engaging as it’s one of the more fun ones. He’s been recognized by some critics groups and his name is Tom Hanks, but the name hasn’t always been enough for him.

Finally, Denzel Washington is the high note for Roman J. Israel, Esq. Washington nearly won this award last year for his performance in Fences. He’s loved by the industry, but the film being poorly received might be his downfall.

Every other performance has some factor working against it, so the logical choice, and a delightful one, is Kaluuya.

But there are still contenders beyond even that. Andrew Garfield has garnered conversation for Breathe. The main obstacle is that Breathe is not well-received at all, but most are unanimous in their praise of Garfield, who is said to give a heartbreaking physical performance in the vein of Eddie Redmayne’s turn in The Theory of Everything.

Yet, because that film is apparently not so good, he might be easy to pass over. In that case, Christian Bale is also in line, as he’s just too outstanding in Hostiles. Entertainment Studios is mounting a heavy campaign for him and, if the film gets eyes on it, he could be the place to go, especially because he’s one of the most respected actors in the industry.

All of that said, we truly do hope that the Academy finally recognizes Andy Serkis for his performance as Caesar in War for the Planet of the Apes. Out of the three Apes films, this final installment is most suited for Oscar recognition. Fox could put together a very strong campaign, but our gut says he’ll still be ignored, unfortunately.

The 5
Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis — Phantom Thread
Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
James Franco — The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya — Get Out

Could contend
Jake Gyllenhaal — Stronger
Tom Hanks — The Post
Denzel Washington — Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Christian Bale — Hostiles
Andrew Garfield — Breathe
Andy Serkis — War for the Planet of the Apes

 

Featured image via Focus Features.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

Next to Best Supporting Actor, Best Lead Actress is the next toughest category at the moment. But, while nothing is certain, it does seem as though the five spots have already been filled.

Frances McDormand is a force to be reckoned with in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. She is a lock.

Saoirse Ronan is electric and subtly transformed in Lady Bird. She is a lock.

Sally Hawkins is joyous and heartbreaking in The Shape of Water. She is a lock.

Meryl Streep is vulnerable and profound in The Post. She is a lock.

Finally, Margot Robbie is a career best in I, Tonya. She may not be a lock, but she is out ahead of the rest of the contenders without a doubt.

But, as said before, nothing is certain.

Jessica Chastain could also garner some serious consideration for her role in Aaron Sorkin’s Molly’s Game. Chastain is commanding, and she’s continuously put in wonderful performance after wonderful performance, so she’s one that’s long “overdue.”

Judi Dench is a near icon of the industry. The weaknesses of Victoria and Abdul would not hamper her potential, if the Academy really does love her work.

Emma Stone may have just won last year for La La Land, but she could definitely return for her performance Battle of the Sexes. The film seems to have fallen off heavily, but if one thread were to hold on, it would be Stone.

Kate Winslet could also sneak in for that fifth spot. One must also entertain the notion of Michelle Williams contending for All the Money in the World. She did receive a Golden Globe nomination, which doesn’t mean much, but also doesn’t mean nothing either.

Finally, while incredibly unlikely — we would like to present the conversation anyway, because it would be wonderful if it worked out — Daniela Vega could make history as the first transgender woman to be nominated, as she’s received much acclaim for A Fantastic Woman.

The 5
Frances McDormand — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Saoirse Ronan — Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins — The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep — The Post
Margot Robbie — I, Tonya

Could contend
Jessica Chastain — Molly’s Game

Kate Winslet — Wonder Wheel
Judi Dench — Victoria and Abdul
Michelle Williams — All the Money in the World
Emma Stone — Battle of the Sexes
Daniela Vega — A Fantastic Woman

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor is perhaps the most stacked category of the year. Upwards of 20 actors are deserving of nominations.

One name, however, has been a lock since Cannes Film Festival: Willem Dafoe. Dafoe has never been more wonderful and lovable in The Florida Project and it would be a shock not to hear his name come nominations day.

But another name shaping up for a nomination is Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Perhaps unfairly, Rockwell almost becomes a co-lead character, and his turn is one of his best. He is also a “long overdue” contender and could very easily be nominated here.

One of the Call Me by Your Name boys will find a place here. It’s looking like it won’t be both, considering how stacked the category is. But everyone is just absolutely floored by Michael Stuhlbarg, especially because of a final act speech that yanks out tears from every viewer. Armie Hammer is definitely not out of contention, though.

Veteran actor Richard Jenkins plays the emotional support to Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, and his performance is just delightful. It’s one of the easier votes for the Academy.

All of the actors of Mudbound have been raved about, but most signs point to Jason Mitchell as the potential nominee here. Mitchell was recently a contender for Straight Outta Compton, so the lack of a nomination there might give him more momentum here. But even without that, he is powerful and deserving.

What a wild occurrence it would be if Christopher Plummer actually does pull off a nomination for his performance in All the Money in the World. He filmed the part between Nov. 20 and Nov. 29. And many are saying that he actually is a stand out in the film. The story behind the recasting could also give him a push.

But don’t forget Bridge of Spies Oscar-winner Mark Rylance for his turn in Dunkirk. Initially, Christopher Nolan’s war epic seemed not to have any standout actors. But as viewers thought back on the film and watched it a second time, Rylance stands out with such vast emotional power. A nomination would be well earned, but, with the film being more of a technical contender, difficult.

Strangely, Woody Harrelson has also competed for his performance in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. It’s rather strange as he doesn’t seem to be better than ‘Woody being Woody,’ but there is steam there.

And what an absolute joy it would be if, in his return as Luke Skywalker, Mark Hamill got nominated. Disney is putting together a campaign for him.

Finally, Steve Carell actually snuck in for a SAG nomination for Battle of the Sexes, so he could be a sneaky contender here.

The 5
Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg — Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins — The Shape of Water
Jason Mitchell — Mudbound

Could contend
Armie Hammer — Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mark Rylance — Dunkirk
Mark Hamill — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Christopher Plummer — All the Money in the World
Steve Carell — Battle of the Sexes

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

While some are currently calling Best Supporting Actress a thin category, those who will contend are incredibly strong.

There seem to be four guarantees at this point. Laurie Metcalf, for Lady Bird, and Allison Janney, for I, Tonya, are locks. Metcalf might even be able to be called a winner at this point, but Janney shouldn’t be counted out.

Holly Hunter is a scene-stealer in The Big Sick and since the film has held rather strong, with SAG nominations to prove, Hunter will be in the mix.

The fourth looks to be Mary J. Blige for Mudbound. The film is sadly being overlooked elsewhere, but Blige has gained some serious steam. Netflix bias pushed out Idris Elba a few years ago, but this snub would be downright offensive.

The fifth, as with most categories, is a bit difficult to pin down. But we’re going with our gut here.

Downsizing may have disappointed as a whole, but Hong Chau is a standout. Visibility would be the only potential issue, but Alexander Payne is beloved by the industry, so Chau should get enough eyes on her performance to be nominated

If Chau doesn’t get in, there are a few that could take her place.

 

 

While comedy doesn’t often get its fair recognition, Tiffany Haddish’s performance in Girls Trip could be one of the ones to break the mold. The film was a box office smash, and Haddish was the clear and undeniable stand out.

Phantom Thread is obviously host to Daniel Day-Lewis’ final role. But it’s also supposedly the best that Lesley Manville has been. If the film finds voters’ eyes, Manville could sneak in.

Based on word, one shouldn’t ignore Melissa Leo either, who is also being hailed as a career best in Novitiate. 

And how can you ever count out Octavia Spencer? She is a powerhouse and her delightful turn in The Shape of Water will likely be loved by many.

 

The 5
Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Allison Janney — I, Tonya
Holly Hunter — The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
Hong Chau — Downsizing

Could contend
Tiffany Haddish — Girls Trip
Lesley Manville — Phantom Thread
Melissa Leo — Novitiate
Octavia Spencer — The Shape of Water

 

Featured image via Paramount Pictures.

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