Category Archives: Awards

Analyzing the Oscar Nominations

The Academy never fails to surprise or disappoint and, this year, they did both to varying degrees. Here are some of the notable takeaways from the nominations announced this morning:

Most nominated:

The Shape of Water earned 13 nominations to take the spot as the most nominated film of the year. It held on in categories such as Best Costume Design and Best Film Editing, where there was heavy competition, and pushed through into Best Supporting Actress with Octavia Spencer when it seemed that she was just beyond the edge.

The second most nominated film is Dunkirk, recognized in eight categories. The film was always a craft/technical juggernaut, and it showed up as such in Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Production Design and Best Cinematography. But the film also confirmed itself as one in the top of the pack, landing Best Director and Best Picture nominations.

A phantom contender:

Focus Features/Courtesy

While most expected nominations in Best Lead Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and Best Costume Design for Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread was justly nominated in Best Original Score for Jonny Greenwood, Best Supporting Actress for Lesley Manville, Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson and Best Motion Picture. Anderson films doesn’t always click with the Academy, as The Master was limited to just acting nominations and the director was only nominated in the category once before for There Will Be Blood. The same can be said about Jonny Greenwood who, despite turning in brilliant work on those previously mentioned films as well as Inherent Vice, had never been nominated before.

Firsts:

These nominations provided plenty of firsts, both for individual artists as well as in Oscar history.

  • Rachel Morrison became the first woman to be nominated in Best Cinematography.
  • Logan became the first superhero film nominated in a writing category.
  • At 88, Christopher Plummer is the oldest acting nominee.
  • Among firsts for many in their career — such as Greenwood, actresses Margot Robbie and Mary J. Blige, actors Timothée Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya and debut directors Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele — perhaps the most notable first comes to a veteran. Christopher Nolan, director of landmark films such as MementoThe Dark Knight and Inception, earned his first Best Director nomination.
  • Dee Rees became the first Black woman to be nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay and joined Suzanne de Passe (Lady Sings the Blues) as the only Black women nominated for screenwriting.
  • Mary J. Blige became the first person ever nominated for a performance and for an original song in the same year, for the same film.
  • Netflix picked up its first non-documentary Oscar nominations with the four that Mudbound received.

Netflix/Courtesy

A year to celebrate women (but we can still do better):

Over the last fourth of 2017, culture began shifting as the world finally began talking — genuinely talking — about not only sexual assault and harassment, but other women’s rights areas such as equal pay, representation and opportunities.

Female filmmakers, particularly, have been championed and today, the Academy nominated Greta Gerwig in Best Director, making her the fifth woman to ever be nominated.

That stat is embarrassing and shameful, that there have been so few, but Gerwig’s inclusion here is rightful recognition of her beautiful accomplishment this year and, hopefully, another key moment in lifting up female filmmakers. Gerwig should not have to embody the entire movement, as that would be unfair, but the nomination is still something that will and must extend beyond the awards ceremony.

Gerwig doesn’t even have to, if one looks below the surface. Women have producing credits on six of the nine Best Picture nominees, and are recognized in, beyond Best Director, both writing categories, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary Feature, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Original Song, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and Best Sound mixing — as noted by journalist Mark Harris.

Merie Wallace/A24/Courtesyy

And while Dee Rees did not get her fair share of talk for the Best Director category and the film was omitted from Best Picture, Mudbound still showed up with four nominations, and its players also made history.

Only more change will come.

Other stories of note:

While they may not have been firsts or records, these following stories, culturally, in Oscar history and just as awesome occurrences, are of note:

  • Jordan Peele became both the third person to ever be nominated in Best Picture, Best Director and one of the writing categories for their first film, and the fifth Black person to be nominated in Best Director. Get Out released back in February and many thought, at the time, that it could compete in Best Original Screenplay and not much else. But its critical, financial and cultural success proved to hold and hold true as the year wrapped up, and the film continued to show up throughout the awards season.
  • James Franco had been predicted in the Best Lead Actor category by plenty of experts, most thinking that the allegations unveiled in the LA Times article arrived too late in the voting process — there were only two days left — for him to be left off. But Franco did end up missing, which may have been due to the allegations, the competition of other actors or, the more likely scenario, a combination of both.
  • At 22, Timothée Chalamet is the youngest Best Lead Actor nominee since 1939.
  • Christopher Plummer was announced to replace Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World in early November. He then shot his part between November 20 and November 29. Weeks later, he was nominated at the Golden Globes. And today, a few days over two months since Plummer stepped on set, he has an Oscar nomination. The turnaround of that is one of the most mind-boggling stories of its kind.

Sony Pictures/Courtesy

Surprises:

A ‘surprise’ can usually be determined by how much love a certain film or artist got or by how many ere predicting it to show up. They can be individual or general. Here are the many:

  • Both Call Me by Your Name supporting actors missed out. Armie Hammer received plenty of buzz out of Sundance and seemed to maintain it for the first two thirds of the year. Then, Michael Stuhlbarg took over once the film came to more festivals and released to the public — likely due to his transfixing, heartbreaking speech at the end of the film. But both were passed over. The scenario wasn’t unheard of, as the same happened at the Screen Actors Guild, but many were hoping that the Academy would take a different path.
  • Most things Phantom Thread, as said before.
  • I, Tonya did not show up as strongly as many had suggested it would. As 2017 came to an end and Oscar voting got underway, there was a lot of buzz about how the film was picking up steam. And the evidence was there, with the film earning nominations at the WGA and PGA, and at other craft guilds such as makeup & hairstyling. But it seemed as though Phantom Thread got in instead.
  • Darkest Hour turned up much better than expected. The film was one of the most talked about out of the late August/early September film festivals, but seemed to have sunk as the season shaped up. There was never any doubt about Gary Oldman or Best Makeup & Hairstyling, but the film held strong in other craft categories, making it into Best Costume Design, Best Cinematography and Best Production Design. It also showed up in Best Picture, shocking many that thought that I, TonyaThe Big Sick and Mudbound were ahead of it.
  • Victoria and Abdul‘s nominations are, perhaps, on the more boring end of ‘surprise.’ The film earned nods in Best Costume Design, ahead of films like The Greatest Showman and Murder on the Orient Express, and in Best Makeup & Hairstyling, ahead of supposed strong contenders I, TonyaBright and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
  • This may not be the most evident surprise to most, but, in the Best Visual Effects category, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Kong: Skull Island showing up was not what buzz suggested. This branch holds a contender showcase, often regarded as the “bakeoff,” where each on the shortlist offers a presentation on the visual effects of their film. Word from the bakeoff pointed to OkjaThe Shape of Water and Dunkirk as the films that would fight for the final two spots. That none of them made it in is surprising.

Netflix/Courtesy

  • In the Best Documentary Feature category, two heavyweights ended up falling off — City of Ghosts and JaneCity of Ghosts was nominated at the Directors Guild and Jane won the documentary award from the Producers Guild.
  • Finally, many expected Martin McDonagh to show up in the Best Director category. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri had just won the SAG Best Ensemble award and McDonagh was nominated by the DGA. The DGA and the Oscars don’t always line up, but, with the film’s supposed (and now defunct?) frontrunner status, many thought that Peele or Gerwig would fall before he did.

Snubs:

‘Snub’ is a word that’s thrown around far too often. I adhere to a rather strict definition of what a snub really is. Granted, much of this is subjective, but I believe that a snub occurs when a film or artist left off is, in the majority opinion, of better quality than at least one of those nominated. With that definition in mind, here is a list of what the snubs of this year might be (as there will be disagreement on what’s been deemed of better quality in the majority opinion):

  • Mudbound missed out on a Best Picture nomination, and many believe that it may be due to the Netflix label, which might still be frowned upon by a significant portion of industry voters and might have caused some to even ignore the picture all together. That seems to be the only logical reason because the film is absolutely breathtaking and regarded as one of the best films of the year.
  • The Best Foreign Language Film category is hard to suggest there’s a ‘snub’ in because so few see all of the shortlisted films, so this one is based mostly on critics and the awards season. Israel contender Foxtrot emerged from the Venice Film Festival as one of the most talked about and acclaimed foreign films of the year, picking up a few awards from the festival. It won the category at the National Board of Review, and has a MetaCritic score only beaten by A Fantastic Woman.
  • As mentioned above, Jane won the PGA documentary award, making it more than a little bizarre for the film not to even be nominated.
  • Also pointed to above, Victoria and Abdul didn’t really strike many as a Best Makeup & Hairstyling nominee. The snub doesn’t come in any specific film’s exclusion, but in a variety of options instead of the Judi Dench picture.
  • Another point talked about, Michael Stuhlbarg was a critical and audience favorite. The industry respects him, and Call Me by Your Name was apparently a very strong contender in many places. It seemed strange to think that the film would only earn one acting nomination, for the newcomer lead Chalamet. So, Stuhlbarg was expected and wanted. And he deserved a nomination. The performance is lived in in every way, quiet but impactful in similar (but also opposite) ways as Best Supporting Actress nominee Lesley Manville. But what Stuhlbarg had was one of the most stunningly performed scenes of the year — the speech at the end of the film. The scene is the most talked about from the film (if not the one that’s a little more peachy) and in a year when hate was so rampant, its empathy seemed all the more powerful. How the Academy opted for Woody Harrelson, who is no better than ‘Woody being Woody’ in Three Billboards, is beyond us.

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

  • We would like to formally apologize to Octavia Spencer. We have nothing against you or your performance. You are a brilliant actress, one of the best. But we would certainly call the exclusion of actresses such as Hong Chau, Holly Hunter and Tiffany Haddish — perhaps Hunter in particular due to her momentum and popularity leading up to today — snubs. Spencer is good in the role, but, let’s face it, she’s not anything more than that.
  • Our final snub is one that stings because of the history that comes along with it. Three years ago, the Academy shockingly and ridiculously omitted The LEGO Movie from Best Animated Feature. And this year, while not as shocking, they ridiculously omitted The LEGO Batman Movie. What got in instead? Ferdinand and The Boss Baby. It’s not even up for debate.

Takeaways:

The Oscar nominations are often a bit diverting from what the awards season had built up until that point. While other awards, such as those from the major guilds, point to potential outcomes at the Oscars, the Oscar nominations can change those narratives. Here are the takeaways from the nominations:

  • Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri is not the frontrunner (to be clear, though, it never was). It’s still in contention — especially with that SAG Best Ensemble win and a Best Film Editing nomination — but missing out in Best Director is a bit crushing. Argo recently pulled off a Best Picture win without a Best Director nomination, but it seems rather unlikely for Three Billboards to do the same. McDonagh would almost certainly need to win the DGA award to craft similar momentum for the film.
  • Dunkirk is holding on in Best Picture and Best Director, thanks in part to McDonagh falling off. As awards season shaped up, Christopher Nolan’s WWII film seemed to flatline — not as a contender, but as a serious contender. But that nomination in Best Director ahead of a supposed frontrunner film’s director gives Nolan and the film a much needed boost. It’s main obstacle is that it is much more obviously a technical/craft contender. Without a nod in Best Original Screenplay, Dunkirk will probably lose out on Best Picture. But, just recently, The Revenant showed that a film can still contend, and contend up until the last moment without a writing nomination. Even if it does lose there, a win at the Directors Guild wouldn’t be surprising and would give Nolan further momentum toward possibly beating Guillermo del Toro.

Melina Sue Gordon/Warner Bros./Courtesy

  • The Shape of Water might have made up for its lack of a SAG Best Ensemble with its 13 nominations. It needed the acting nominations and safely made its way into Best Original Screenplay. And it showing up throughout the technical/craft categories shows its wide strength (every voter from every branch gets to vote on Best Picture). But this seemed to be the narrative for La La Land too, that it could make up for missing out of a nod for SAG Best Ensemble. We all know how that turned out, so let’s just say that things are still up in the air.
  • Get Out and Lady Bird are still fighting for Best Picture. Had one of them gotten a Best Film Editing nomination, the narrative would be stronger, but both making it in for Best Director is key. If the WGA award for Best Original Screenplay goes to either of these, they could pick up even more steam. And if one of them wins Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars, even if the film miss out on winning Best Director, lookout for the one that does to take the night — as Spotlight and Moonlight did the same.

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

The 2018 Oscar Nominations

The time has finally come. This morning, at the absurd hour of 5am, the Academy announced their Oscar nominations for the films of 2017. The contenders for the 90th Academy Awards are as follows:

Best Motion Picture:

Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour

Best Director:

Christopher Nolan — Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro — The Shape of Water
Jordan Peele — Get Out
Greta Gerwig — Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson — Phantom Thread

Best Lead Actor:

Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Kaluuya — Get Out
Daniel Day-Lewis — Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington — Roman J. Israel, Esq

Best Lead Actress:

Frances McDormand — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan — Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins — The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep — The Post
Margot Robbie — I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor:

Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins — The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer — All the Money in the World
Woody Harrelson — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress:

Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Allison Janney — I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
Lesley Manville — Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer — The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay:

Jordan Peele — Get Out
Greta Gerwig — Lady Bird
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani — The Big Sick
Martin McDonagh — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Vanessa Taylor, Guillermo del Toro — The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay:

James Ivory — Call Me by Your Name
Dee Rees, Virgil Williams — Mudbound
Aaron Sorkin — Molly’s Game
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber — The Disaster Artist
James Mangold, Scott Frank, Michael Green — Logan

Best Production Design:

Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Blade Runner 2049
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Darkest Hour
Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin — The Shape of Water
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis — Dunkirk
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Beauty and the Beast

Best Cinematography:

Hoyte van Hoytema — Dunkirk
Roger Deakins — Blade Runner 2049
Rachel Morrison — Mudbound
Bruno Delbonnel — Darkest Hour
Dan Laustsen — The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design:

Mark Bridges — Phantom Thread
Jacqueline Durran — Beauty and the Beast
Consolata Boyle — Victoria and Abdul
Luis Sequeira — The Shape of Water
Jacqueline Durran — Darkest Hour

Best Film Editing:

Lee Smith — Dunkirk
Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss — Baby Driver
Tatiana S. Riegel — I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky — The Shape of Water
Jon Gregory — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick — Darkest Hour
Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten — Wonder
Daniel Phillips, Lou Sheppard — Victoria and Abdul

Best Sound Mixing: 

Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill — Blade Runner 2049
Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo — Dunkirk
Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern — The Shape of Water
Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin — Baby Driver

Best Sound Editing:

Mark Mangini, Theo Green — Blade Runner 2049
Richard King, Alex Gibson — Dunkirk
Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Nathan Robitaille — The Shape of Water
Julian Slater — Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects:

Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist — War for the Planet of the Apes
John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer — Blade Runner 2049
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus — Kong: Skull Island

Best Original Score:

Hans Zimmer — Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood — Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat — The Shape of Water
John Williams — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Song:

“Mystery of Love,” Sufjan Stevens — Call Me by Your Name
“This Is Me,” Benj Hasek, Justin Paul — The Greatest Showman
“Remember Me,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez — Coco
“Stand Up for Something,” Diane Warren, Common — Marshall
“Mighty River,” Mary J. Blige — Mudbound

Best Animated Feature:

Coco
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby

Ferdinand

Best Foreign Language Film:

The Square
A Fantastic Woman
Loveless
The Insult

On Body and Soul

Best Documentary Feature:

Icarus
Faces Places
Strong Island

Last Men in Aleppo
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Best Documentary Short:

Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)

Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

Best Live Action Short:

The Eleven O’Clock
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
My Nephew Emmett
DeKalb Elementary

Best Animated Short:

Dear Basketball
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Garden Party

 

Featured image via A24/Warner Bros./Universal Pictures/Fox Searchlight.

2018 Oscar Predictions: The Shorts

For a non-professional awards writer, the shorts are almost impossible to predict. They’re difficult to find, if not entirely impossible to view. And there are a lack of precursors that could point us in a direction. So, this will more or less be based off of the suggestions from awards experts:

Documentary Short

The 5
Alone
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets

Could contend
Ten Meter Tower
Knife Skills
116 Cameras
Traffic Stop
Ram Dass, Going Home

Animated Short

The 5
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

Could contend
Cradle
Fox and the Whale
Life Smartphone
Garden Party
Lost Property Office

Live Action Short

The 5
The Eleven O’Clock
Icebox
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Witnesses

Could contend
Lost Face
My Nephew Emmett
Facing Mecca
DeKalb Elementary
Rise of a Star

 

Featured image via Pixar.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

Best Original Song doesn’t always go to the best bunch. Oftentimes, it’s a popularity content and this year is no different.

The La La Land songwriting team worked on The Greatest Showman, and the number “This Is Me” has certainly been the talking point as it champions diversity. The song won at the Golden Globes, and will see a nomination here.

While the song may not be any good, “Evermore,” from Beauty and the Beast, is one that’s easy to rally around.

Sufjan Stevens will be one of the more deserving of the bunch for his work on Call Me by Your Name. While he should absolutely contend for two songs, he likely will only receive note for “Mystery of Love” — the other being “Visions of Gideon.”

And it’s hard to see a world where the Coco song “Remember Me” isn’t nominated. The piece is an absolute tearjerker in the context of the film. Pixar is beloved and the film will win the Animated category, so it’s a lock here.

Finally, the rather celebrated team behind Marshall‘s “Stand Up For Something,” which includes Common, who recently won in this category, should hit that fifth spot.

But there are a few others that could find a way in. Mudbound‘s Mary J. Blige wrote “Mighty River” for the film, and she could be a double nominee if she scores in Supporting Actress as well.

And the category has, before, noted songs from critically slammed films. So the song for Fifty Shades Darker, especially with Taylor Swift behind it, could surprise some.

The 5
“Mystery of Love,” Sufjan Stevens — Call Me by Your Name
“This Is Me,” Benj Hasek, Justin Paul — The Greatest Showman
“Evermore,” Alan Menken, Tim Rice — Beauty and the Beast
“Remember Me,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez — Coco
“Stand Up For Something,” Diane Warren, Common — Marshall

Could contend
“Mighty River,” Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
“I Don’t Want to Live Forever,” Zayn, Taylor Swift — Fifty Shades Darker

 

Featured image via Sony Pictures Classics.

Independent Spirit Award nominations: Analysis and predictions

While it may still be a long time before we get the 2018 Oscar nominations — with all of the guild and critics prizes yet to come — the cinematic gods blessed us with arguably an even more interesting set of films: the Independent Spirit Awards.

Unlike the Oscars, which always tend to be predicated on what studio spends the most for its films to garner nominations and eventual wins — assuming the quality of the film is mostly there too — the Independent Spirit Awards almost always go for an eclectic crop of nominees. For example, the highly acclaimed, but rarely seen The Rider receiving nominations for Best Feature over a film like Mudbound and for Best Director over Greta Gerwig with Lady Bird.

While submissions and snubs are abound in any awards show, the Indie Spirit Awards do their job in providing a wealth of options that have both broke out in the mainstream (Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards), masterpieces waiting to be released after a hugely successful festival run (Call Me by Your Name, I, Tonya) and underseen but deserving gems (The Lovers, Columbus, Beach Rats).

Below you will find an analysis of the main categories, with way-too-early predictions in each category for what may win come March 3rd, 2018.

 

Best Feature:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Rider

Analysis: Anyone of these films are quality enough to win, all being festival favorites throughout the year. And four of them (Call Me by Your Name, The Florida Project, Get OutLady Bird) are legitimate contenders for Best Picture nominations.

With that being said, once seeing how the whole field looks, it appears that there are truly only two threats for the win here: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. The Rider was stronger than anyone expected, picking up Best Feature, Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Editing nominations. Lady Bird was great across the board, but missed out on a Best Directing nom, showing a potential weakness for the win. The Florida Project received a Best Feature and Best Director nom, but missed out on Best Supporting Actor for Oscar front-running Willem Dafoe, as well as Best Editing, Best Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. All of these missed noms show an overall weakness that The Florida Project has (or just how highly competitive indies were this year).

Nonetheless, if Get Out and Call Me by Your Name are the frontrunners and thus the titans of the field, then there honestly aren’t two better options. Get Out is one of the highest grossing indies of all time, as well as, still, one of the best reviewed of the year. It’s a film from first-time director Jordan Peele that goes straight for the jugular of white liberalism and the hidden racialized beliefs that persist within society. The film is a savage satire on the institutions and ideas that stigmatize and oppress minorities. Balancing horror, comedy, mystery, thriller, drama and practically everything in between, Get Out remains the event film of the year when it comes to creating relevant and necessary discussion about America’s past and present race relations.

Call Me by Your Name may be more modest in its aims. However, there may not have been a more sensual screen realization of the aching, painful first love a young person goes through. Where most films about a homosexual relationship feature societal pressure and punishment for their non-conforming relationship, such as the tribulations the characters face in Moonlight or Brokeback Mountain, Call Me by Your Name instead allows the pain to come from two lovers that know their time together is running out. With excellent performances from Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name makes you feel the ching lust, the heavy desire, the impending heartbreak that these two young men face. Directed by Italian maestro Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name is a queer masterpiece, but a universal one too.  

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: Get Out
Should win: Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Director:

Universal Pictures/Courtesy

Jonas Carpignano, A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Benny and Josh Safdie, Good Time
Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Analysis: Every nominee here is absolutely deserving, yet, it was interesting to see the field expanded to six nominees, and one of them wasn’t Greta Gerwig’s 400 Blows-esque debut with Lady Bird. Nonetheless, if Benny and Josh Safdie got in over her, for their subtle exploration of white privilege in America within their very-not-subtle bad decisions heist thriller, then so be it. Their urban, gritty descent into madness with a stunning, Indie Spirit-nominated Robert Pattinson might actually be a threat to win here due to Good Time being so strong in every other category — landing a Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing and a worthy yet fully unexpected Supporting Actress nomination.

But who am I kidding? Like above, there are really three, but more likely two nominees that can win. Sean Baker has a chance, due to The Florida Project moving nearly everyone who sees it, but this will be a Guadagnino versus Peele showdown. And both are incredibly deserving. While it appears that the beauty of Call Me by Your Name would be a likely Best Feature winner, the intensity and relevancy of Get Out will make it hard to be ignored for the Best Director award.

Will win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Could win: Sean Baker, The Florida Project or Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

Best Female Lead:

Fox Searchlight/Courtesy

Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Shinobu Terajima, Oh Lucy
Regina Williams, Life and Nothing More

Analysis: This category is a prime example of what makes the Independent Spirit Awards so special. We have three women who are potential Oscar nominees (and maybe even winners), and three women who likely will be ignored by most critics and guild prizes, despite being entirely worthy. Regina Williams, Shinobu Terajima and Salma Hayek all give arguably their career best in films that were all greatly reviewed, and, in the case of Beatriz at Dinner and Life and Nothing More, showed strength in multiple categories.

But truly, this is a Robbie or Ronan or McDormand win, who showcase some of the best lead performances of the year, regardless of gender. Robbie continues to dazzle audiences by going against type, as funny, but twisted real-life figure skater Tonya Harding in the pitch black comedy biopic I, Tonya. Frances McDormand brings a bruised humanity to Three Billboards, upstaging great performances from Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson and John Hawkes. The film is an angry examination of the lack of urgency of police in certain situations, as well as a pitch-perfect character study of the women and police involved in an unsolved murder and rape case. McDormand gives one of her all-time best, which by her standards, says a lot about the masterful Martin McDonagh film.

Then, there is Saoirse Ronan, giving her career best in Lady Bird — a film in which she deftly balances being both an intelligent teenager with large ambitions, as well as a naive young woman figuring out life as she goes. Featuring moments comical and entirely moving, especially when in scenes with her screen mother Laurie Metcalf, Ronan is a real threat to be the major winner for Lady Bird.

Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Should win: Honestly, all of them are excellent.

 

Best Male Lead:

Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time

Analysis: It’s hard to call a race over when each nominee is incredible, but this one, for all intents and purposes, is likely over.

James Franco gives his best performance yet, in the moving, hilarious and ultimately tragic The Disaster Artist, a film about the making of the worst film of all time, The Room. Then there’s Robert Pattinson’s masterfully manipulative Connie in Good Time — another career best and potential dark horse Oscar candidate. Daniel Kaluuya carries what is shaping up to be one of the awards season heavy hitters, deftly playing a victim and a person unwilling to be subjected to the horrors that white culture thrust upon him.

Ultimately though, Timothée Chalamet will walk away with the award. Whether you love or just like Call Me by Your Name, there’s no doubting the raw lead performance from the 21-year-old Chalamet. There’re a few scenes in this film where Timothée sells the lies that his character tells to loved ones, but also the hidden truths that are found in body language. One of the last scenes in the film, which is nothing shorter than at least a five-minute close up, on nothing else but Timothée’s face, will surely be a scene that people will be haunted by as they leave this masterful, beautiful, exhilarating film about the passion and pain of first love.

Will win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Could win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

 

Best Supporting Female:

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time

Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Could win: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick or Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird or Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

 

Best Supporting Male:

Nnamdi Asomugha, Crown Heights
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Benny Safdie, Good Time

Will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Any of the five are incredible.

 

Best Screenplay:

Lady Bird
The Lovers
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Beatriz at Dinner

Will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Get Out or Lady Bird
Should win: Lady Bird

 

Best First Screenplay:

Donald Cried
The Big Sick
Women Who Kill
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West

Will win: The Big Sick
Could win: Ingrid Goes West
Should win: The Big Sick

 

Best Cinematography:

The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Columbus
Beach Rats
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider

Will win: Call Me by Your Name
Could win: The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Should win: Columbus

 

Best Editing:

Good Time
Call Me by Your Name
The Rider
Get Out
I, Tonya

Will win: Get Out
Could win: Call Me by Your Name
Should win: Good Time or I, Tonya

 

John Cassavetes Award:

A Ghost Story
Dayveon
Life and Nothing More
Most Beautiful Island
The Transfiguration

Will win: A Ghost Story
Could win: Dayveon or Life and Nothing More
Should win: A Ghost Story

 

Best Documentary:

The Departure
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Motherland
Quest

Will win: Faces Places
Could win: Last Men in Aleppo
Should win: Faces Places

 

Best International Film:

A Fantastic Woman
BPM
Lady Macbeth
I Am Not a Witch
Loveless

Will win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: Loveless
Should win: A Fantastic Woman

 

Featured image via Universal/Sony Pictures Classics/A24.

2018 Oscar Predictions

Oscar contention truly starts at the beginning of the year. Sundance Film Festival is host to plenty of independents, and there’s always one or two that get people talking. And oftentimes, those films carry. Look at Whiplash or Manchester by the SeaCall Me by Your Name and Mudbound could do the same.

Spring quickly dries up, unless someone with the quality of Wes Anderson is releasing a film, and the public got a big contender right away with February’s Get Out.

The wait after that is not as long as one may think. May plays host to Cannes, and there always seems to be a few serious Best Picture contenders to come out of the French festival — The Florida Project seeming to be the one this year.

Then, if we’re lucky, someone like George Miller, with Mad Max: Fury Road, or, this year, Christopher Nolan, with Dunkirk, will start another public wide Oscars conversation with a summer release.

That film garners intense conversation — as Dunkirk did — long enough to last until the end of August when the remaining major festivals play out. Across about three weeks, Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival and Toronto International Film festival all occur. There, the true contenders reveal themselves. Last year, Moonlight and La La Land screened with days of each other. This year, we got The Shape of WaterThree Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird.

Then, it’s suddenly the Fall season and we’re off to the races with those very films releasing to the public across the next four months. And, if we’re lucky, a film will sneak in last minute to round out the year, as Steven Spielberg’s The Post did.

For movie fans, the Oscars are truly a year long journey, and whether or not a film will compete for one has turned into a metric by which to judge quality — for better or for worse.

But we’re having particular fun with it this year, one of the more interesting years of recent memory. We’ve followed the journey since the start and we feel comfortable enough calling ourselves familiar with the field.

And now that the year is wrapping up and the races are getting steamy, we want to jump in with how we project those coveted Oscar nominations will turn out. Predicting the Oscars has turned into a competitive sport, and it’s one that we must play. Here are our predictions for the 90th Academy Awards:

Best Motion Picture

Best Lead Actor

Best Lead Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Director

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Animated Feature

Best Production Design

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Editing

Best Visual Effects

Best Original Score

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Documentary Feature

Best Original Song

The Shorts

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

While the Best Picture field has shaped up as time passed and we’ve seen winners from PGA and SAG, there is still no frontrunner. Many of the films nominated will have a great chance of winning.

Right now, there are seven strong bets.

With SAG nominations for Best Ensemble, Lady BirdGet Out and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri are essentially shoe-ins. A film rarely wins Best Picture without one of these and, considering the momentum of these three, it would be shocking were one not to be nominated. And with Three Billboards winning Best Ensemble, it is certainly a lock.

Despite not receiving a SAG Best Ensemble nom, Christopher Nolan’s war epic Dunkirk is still a legitimate threat. The film exploded out of the gates with the best reviews of his career and many touting it as the first legitimate Oscar contender of the year. The film is an unparalleled experiential feat, the cinematic experience of the year, and should work its way into a Best Picture nomination quite easily, a la Gravity and Mad Max: Fury Road. The war genre also makes it Nolan’s friendliest Oscar picture to date, while still remaining distinctly “Nolan,” and Warner Bros. knows that it has something special in its hands.

There was word that The Post came to SAG voters too late for it to be considered, so it not being in there doesn’t necessarily hold the same weight as other films. The film is proving weaker than expected at the guilds, but this is Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep in an extremely relevant film that’s well-received enough and a PGA nomination to back it up. It’s certainly going to be nominated.

The next rather clear cut nomination is Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. The film is a contender across the board, including being a heavy weight in Best Director, which, most of the time, correlates with Best Picture. But even without that correlation, the film won the PGA award, the guild equivalent to Best Picture.

Call Me by Your Name may have taken a hit with its total omission from SAG nominations, but, even then, it’s still too strong to ignore. It is the critical darling of the season and, like Manchester by the Sea showed last year, that quite easily translates to a nomination. Even if it did sustain a hit, it was previously near the top, so it wouldn’t really fall far enough to genuinely fall out of contention.

Beyond those seven, as the Academy will likely nominate at least eight, there are a few that could find a final spot.

The Florida Project is a small project, but it seems to be a sneaky powerhouse contender similar to Room, and a Best Picture nomination would absolutely be in order. Like Call Me by Your Name, it is a total critical darling and a film easy to love and, apparently, very loved by the industry. And the fact that it’s an A24 film — A24 being the studio behind Moonlight — only makes it more of a rallying point.

The other outlier is Mudbound. Objectively, the film should be easy to nominate. But it’s distributed by Netflix, and it seems as though the bias against the streaming company isn’t completely gone as it’s momentum has been rather deflated as of late. Still, it is quite a stunning picture, and it has a lot of valuable things to say about race and America that are still extremely relevant today. It also got a SAG Best Ensemble nomination — rightly so.

But it missed out at the PGA and is still falling. Heartbreakingly so, we can’t see it making it in.

So, adding in The Florida Project, eight nominees it is.

But there are films still in contention.

The Big Sick is the final film mentioned that received a SAG Best Ensemble nod. It’s a certain contender in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress, so it’s not unreasonable to suggest that it could be nominated.

I, Tonya is the one that could surprise. With the momentum it picked up in the past month and a PGA nomination, it is a legitimate threat to replace The Florida Project.

Darkest Hour hits a sweet spot for the Academy: period prestige. As time has passed, though, the film’s reception has slowly sunk. Something just hasn’t stuck. But the quality is there and it could still find a place.

This wouldn’t be an Oscar conversation without discussing the blockbuster that could potentially shake things up. And this year, the contender seems easy to spot. Blade Runner 2049 is directed by Denis Villeneuve, the filmmaker behind Arrival, which earned eight nominations including Best Director and Best Picture. 2049 has received outstanding reviews and, with it successfully (at least story-wise) following up a sci-fi classic, it could be a film to get behind.

Lastly, Phantom Thread is one of Paul Thomas Anderson’s more beloved films and, with its British aura, could hit that ‘prestige’ button on the head.

8 nominations
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Shape of Water

The Post
Call Me by Your Name
The Florida Project

Could contend
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
Mudbound
Darkest Hour
The Big Sick
Blade Runner 2049

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

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