Tag Archives: Oscar Predictions

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

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The back to back snubs of the two LEGO movies in this category is absolutely bizarre and intensely infuriating. The Boss Baby over The LEGO Batman Movie? Give me a break.

The anger may be worthless, though, as nothing was ever going to compete with Coco. The Pixar film has unsurprisingly racked up precursor awards and is one of the surest bets of the night — which makes it even more interesting considering that I would put both The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent above it.

The Nominees
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Ferdinand

Will win: Coco
Could win: Nothing other than Coco
Should win: The Breadwinner
Should’ve been nominated: The LEGO Batman Movie

 

Featured image via Pixar.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

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This race is a bit close. The Art Directors Guild gave their fantasy award to Blade Runner 2049 and their period award to The Shape of Water.

However, The Shape of Water also won the BAFTA award, pushing it over Blade Runner 2049 ever so slightly. While the Denis Villeneuve film may be a bit more deserving, its design astoundingly stunning, The Shape of Water would seemingly take some craft award somewhere beyond music when considering Guillermo del Toro’s massive lead in Best Director, and production design is the most likely and perhaps most obvious place to award it.

The Nominees
Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Blade Runner 2049
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Darkest Hour
Paul D. Austerberry, Jeff Melvin, Shane Vieau — The Shape of Water
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis — Dunkirk
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Beauty and the Beast

Will win: Paul D. Austerberry — The Shape of Water
Could win: Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Blade Runner 2049
Should’ve been nominated: Rick Heinrichs, Richard Roberts — Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

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All signs point to Roger Deakins winning his first Oscar for Blade Runner 2049, after a staggering 14 nominations.

Deakins won the BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers award this year, and the combination of those two precursors gives him a pretty significant lead.

Deakins is clearly the pick to make, but it’s difficult to completely rule out Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk or Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water. Dunkirk is a craft heavyweight and the visuals, especially for those who had the pleasure of seeing it in 70mm, IMAX or IMAX 70mm, are absolutely stunning. Those technical aspects could be a benefit for it in this category. And Dan Laustsen could potentially ride the widespread adoration for The Shape of Water to a win.

But again, all signs point to Deakins. On another note, shifting out either Laustsen or Delbonnel for Hostiles‘ Masanobu Takayanagi would’ve greatly improved this crop.

The Nominees
Roger Deakins — Blade Runner 2049
Hoyte van Hoytema — Dunkirk
Dan Laustsen — The Shape of Water
Bruno Delbonnel — Darkest Hour
Rachel Morrison — Mudbound

Will win: Roger Deakins — Blade Runner 2049
Could win: Hoyte van Hoytema — Dunkirk
Should win: Hoyte van Hoytema — Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: Masanobu Takayanagi — Hostiles

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

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The simple fact that Phantom Thread is about fashion and the lead character is a dress designer whose work is shown off in the film positioned it as the frontrunner before any awards were handed out.

And we’re still sticking with it. It won the BAFTA award for Best Costume Design and, well, it’s about fashion — not to mention, Bridges has won this award recently, for The Artist.

But this race became a bit tricky when Phantom Thread lost the Costume Designers Guild award to The Shape of Water, which was a bit surprising, especially because The Shape of Water doesn’t necessarily stand out as a “costume” kind of movie, at least enough to win. It could, though, steal the award.

I’m going to stick with Phantom Thread though. The Shape of Water feels like a guild-specific win, whereas Phantom Thread feels like a film that the Academy would award.

The Nominees
Mark Bridges — Phantom Thread
Jacqueline Durran — Beauty and the Beast
Consolata Boyle — Victoria and Abdul
Luis Sequeira — The Shape of Water
Jacqueline Durran — Darkest Hour

Will win: Mark Bridges — Phantom Thread
Could win: Luis Sequeira — The Shape of Water
Should win: Mark Bridges — Phantom Thread
Should’ve been nominated: Jennifer Johnson — I, Tonya

 

Featured image via Focus Features.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

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There are two major precursors for the Best Film Editing category: the American Cinema Editors (their awards titled the Eddies) and the BAFTA.

The BAFTA went to Baby Driver, which has created the potential for a true spoiler here. Dunkirk came in as the frontrunner and is still considered the frontrunner by many. But considering the fact that BAFTA predicted a few recent film editing spoilers such as Whiplash and Hacksaw Ridge, and the acclaim of Baby Driver‘s film editing, it could certainly steal the award.

The American Cinema Editors awarded their Eddies to I, Tonya in the comedy category and to Dunkirk in the drama category. The comedy Eddie doesn’t usually translate to the Oscar. And while the BAFTA may seem more prestigious, the drama Eddie does, in fact, line up more with the Oscar, which is part of the reason why I’m going to stick with Dunkirk.

As seen last year with Hacksaw Ridge, intense war films can certainly perform well in this category, and Dunkirk does have its fair share of visceral sequences. But the film also has the non-linear structure going for it as well and it could’ve also received even more of a push considering the snub of Lee Smith for Inception.

The Nominees
Lee Smith — Dunkirk
Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss — Baby Driver
Tatiana S. Riegel — I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky — The Shape of Water
 Jon Gregory — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: Lee Smith — Dunkirk
Could win: Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss — Baby Driver
Should win: Lee Smith — Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: Joe Walker — Blade Runner 2049

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup & Hairstyling

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There’s not much to say here. Darkest Hour was the frontrunner before it came out. Darkest Hour was the frontrunner when it came out. Darkest Hour has been the frontrunner throughout the awards season, throughout the precursors. Darkest Hour will win.

If anything were to possibly spoil it, it would be Wonder. But with the talk around this specific aspect of the film, guild and BAFTA wins and the connecting power of Gary Oldman in the Best Lead Actor category, this is the closest thing to a lock.

And while it wouldn’t have competed, a nomination for Logan was certainly in order, and could’ve made this category a bit more interesting.

The Nominees
David Malinkowski, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji — Darkest Hour
Arjen Tuiten — Wonder
Daniel Phillips, Lou Sheppard — Victoria and Abdul

Will win: Darkest Hour
Could win: Wonder
Should win: Darkest Hour
Should’ve been nominated: Logan

 

Featured image via Focus Features.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound Mixing

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Whereas sound editing is the creation of sounds, sound mixing is the combination of all of those sounds to create an atmosphere. Sound editing creates the sound of a gunshot bursting through the side of a ship. Sound mixing mixes together the tens of gunshots going off at once while voices scream and water rushes in.

As mentioned in the Best Sound Editing write-up, the BAFTA award for Best Sound often lines up more with the Best Sound Mixing category than it does the Best Sound Editing category. Slumdog Millionaire, Les Miserables and Whiplash are all examples. While it’s not a perfect parallel, it is reliable, and Dunkirk‘s win should line it up to take home this award at the Oscars.

In addition, Christopher Nolan’s war epic won the Cinema Audio Society award, giving it two precursors. And, as shown by Hacksaw Ridge last year, a war film with intense and brutal sound design could do well in this category.

It’s not without reason to suspect a possible upset by Baby Driver. The film’s mix is its biggest sound asset, the tequila shootout coming to mind as an example of mixing brilliance. Edgar Wright’s film is rather popular and if it turns out stronger than anticipated, it take this award from Dunkirk.

Finally, Blade Runner 2049 is also not out of competition. There can be a lot of crossover between the sound categories and how voters judge/vote on them, and 2049‘s constant presence and sound editing wins make it a stealth contender here.

The Nominees
Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten — Dunkirk
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Stuart Wilson — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth — Blade Runner 2049
Tim Cavagin, Julian Slater, Mary H. Ellis — Baby Driver
Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern — The Shape of Water

Will win: Dunkirk
Could win: Baby Driver
Should win: Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: The Lost City of Z

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound Editing

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“Sound editing” is a term not widely understood by the general public. Basically, it is the creation of sounds for a film. The noise of a blaster or a tie fighter in a Star Wars film? That’s sound editing. The explosions of bombs in war films? That’s sound editing.

There aren’t a whole lot of precursors for this award, as BAFTA’s Best Sound category points more toward Best Sound Mixing than it does toward this one.

There is the award handed out by the Motion Picture Sound Editors group. The group opted for Blade Runner 2049, so a pick there would have a decent amount of reason to back it up.

But Dunkirk does seem to still have a lead here regardless. War films are popular in this category, with American Sniper, Zero Dark Thirty and The Hurt Locker all winning here in the last decade. In addition, BAFTA has ended up predicting this category and not Best Sound Mixing before; in fact, that happened just last year when Arrival took home the BAFTA and went on to win here. So Dunkirk‘s BAFTA win certainly does hold weight.

Finally, one of the biggest aspects of Dunkirk that audience’s unanimously rave about is its sound, it being more intense and overwhelming than most films in the genre. The film will likely take the other sound category, and if any film were to take both — the sounds are split a decent amount of the time — it would be Nolan’s.

The Nominees
Richard King, Alex Gibson — Dunkirk
Mark Mangini, Theo Green — Blade Runner 2049
Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Julian Slater — Baby Driver
Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira — The Shape of Water 

Will win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: War for the Planet of the Apes

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Kong: Skull Island are just happy to be here, two films that weren’t expected to receive nominations.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi comes from the massively popular ILM (Industrial Light & Magic). The visual effects studio is one of the most revered in the industry, and the award can become a rather political one, meaning that a studio like this will certainly pull its fair share of votes.

War for the Planet of the Apes did seem like the frontrunner for a long time, it being the third of the Planet of the Apes trilogy that has been widely recognized for its performance capture elements, but that has also gone without an Oscar to this point. War was the film that was supposed to right those wrongs. And while it’s not foolish to predict the film, as it did win significantly at the Visual Effects Society awards, another contender has come in strong recently.

Blade Runner 2049 had a very strong showcase at the visual effects bakeoff prior to nominations being handed out, something that could stick with voters. It also just recently won the BAFTA Best Special Visual Effects award. The Visual Effects Society does have significant weight, but it did award each of the first two Planet of the Apes films while the Oscars went the other way. BAFTA may have gotten it wrong in a Planet of the Apes year when it went with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 instead of Hugo, but it did correctly predict Interstellar‘s victory over Dawn. So, BAFTA may be the place to look to this year to figure out which film will win the Best Visual Effects Oscar.

The Nominees
Joel Whist, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett — War for the Planet of the Apes
Richard R. Hoover, Paul Lambert, Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson — Blade Runner 2049
Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlon, Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dan Sudick Jonathan Fawkner, Guy Williams, Christopher Townsend — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Mike Meinardus, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza — Kong: Skull Island

Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Could win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should’ve been nominated: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

 

Featured image via Warner Bros.

2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

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Best Original Score is a bit of a mix between celebrity status and merit. Sometimes the best score among the bunch is passed on for a more popular name, but the disparity, in that case, between the best and the winner isn’t massive.

It’s a bit easy to rule out Carter Burwell for his Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri score and John Williams for his eighth take on Star Wars. Neither won precursors and while there may be fans of Williams’ compositions, neither feel particularly memorable either.

This year, Hans Zimmer’s brutally intense Dunkirk score, one that almost feels like sound design (the supervising music editor was nominated in the Best Sound Editing category), or Jonny Greenwood’s classically inspired yet singularly beautifully work on Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread seem like the two that most obviously deserve it.

However, both Zimmer and Greenwood will likely be passed over for Alexandre Desplat’s work on The Shape of Water. Not only did he win both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but he has also apparently been schmoozing in the time prior to voting, a tactic that has worked for other Oscar nominees this year. His score is undoubtedly beautiful, serves the film wondrously and is not the most heinous of the nominees to award. But it is unfortunate that more powerful scores will miss out.

If the Oscars were truly about the best of the year and not just the most popular or most campaigned, Daniel Hart’s A Ghost Story score would’ve been nominated.

The Nominees
Hans Zimmer — Dunkirk
Alexandre Desplat — The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood — Phantom Thread
 John Williams — Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell — Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: Alexandre Desplat — The Shape of Water
Could win: Hans Zimmer — Dunkirk
Should win: Hans Zimmer — Dunkirk
Should’ve been nominated: Daniel Hart — A Ghost Story

 

Featured image via Fox Searchlight Pictures.

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